Introduction
- Bangladesh and India celebrated their 50 years of historic relationship in December last year. The relations between the two countries have been identified as ‘a multidimensional fraternal relationship’ – sustaining amid several challenges in the last five decades.
- From the 1971 Bangladesh War of Independence to the present trends, the historical ties have increasingly deepened into the comprehensive and ever-expanding area of cooperation between the two nations.
- Sheikh Hasina’s exit brought an abrupt end to her 15-year reign.
- The ouster of Sheikh Hasina would have serious implications for India-Bangladesh Relations.
Reasons Behind Sheikh Hasina’s Exit
Peaceful Student Demonstration Evolving into a Nationwide Movement
- A peaceful student protest against the 30% reservation for freedom fighters in civil services escalated into a nationwide movement due to the government’s harsh response.
- The involvement of Awami League’s student wing, Bangladesh Chhatra League, attacks on students, a strict curfew with a ‘shoot-on-sight’ order, and labeling protesters as ‘Razakars’ (a term for collaborators during the 1971 war) intensified tensions and public unrest.
Economic Slowdown
- Bangladesh saw significant economic progress under Sheikh Hasina, with per capita income tripling in a decade and over 25 million people lifted out of poverty.
- However, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global economic slowdown severely impacted the garment industry, leading to increased unemployment and inflation, which caused widespread discontent among the population.
Erosion of Democratic Values
- The parliamentary elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were marked by low turnout, violence, and boycotts by opposition parties, raising concerns about democratic values under Hasina’s leadership.
- These controversial elections eroded public trust in the democratic process.
Reliance on Hard Power to Maintain Control
- Hasina’s government increasingly relied on hard power to maintain control, creating an atmosphere of fear and repression.
- The Digital Security Act of 2018 was used to silence critics and restrict freedom of online expression, contributing to public discontent.
Increasing Economic Inequality
- Despite overall economic progress, economic inequality increased due to bank scams, defaulters, and rampant corruption.
- Notable companies like CLC Power, Western Marine Shipyard, and Remex Footwear topped the list of defaulters with significant bad loans, further fueling public dissatisfaction.
Read also: Explain 5 Years Abrogation of Article 370 Impact and Analysis | UPSC
India-Bangladesh Relations Under Sheikh Hasina’s Regime
Eradication of Anti-India Terror Groups
- Anti-India terror groups and their supporters, such as Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, which operated during the BNP-Jamaat rule (2001-06), were eliminated after Sheikh Hasina’s return to power, enhancing regional security.
Increase in Bilateral Trade
- Bangladesh has become a key pillar of India’s Neighborhood First policy.
- In trade terms, Bangladesh is India’s biggest partner in the subcontinent, and India is Bangladesh’s second biggest partner in Asia after China.
- India-Bangladesh bilateral trade relations flourished, reaching $13 billion in FY 2023-24.
- India provided duty-free quota access to Bangladesh on all tariff lines except tobacco and alcohol under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) since 2011.
- Bangladesh is the top destination for India’s cotton exports and a significant importer of petroleum products and cereals.
- India imports ready-made garments from Bangladesh, contributing $391 million to their trade.
Increased Connectivity Projects
- Several infrastructure and connectivity projects were completed, such as the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link, the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line, and multiple bus routes between the two countries.
- The Chittagong and Mongla ports were also opened for cargo movement between mainland India and the Northeast.
- India has extended $8 billion in credit since 2016 for the development of road, rail, shipping, and port infrastructure in Bangladesh.
- BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) Motor Vehicles Agreement (2022): This agreement facilitates the seamless movement of cargo and passenger vehicles, enhancing connectivity in the region.
Discussions on FTA
- The FTA discussions initiated in October 2023 aimed to reduce or eliminate customs duties on goods traded between the two countries, potentially boosting Bangladesh’s exports to India by up to 297% and India’s exports by 172%.
Land Boundary Agreement (2015)
- The Land Boundary Agreement resolved a long-standing dispute by swapping disputed islands and allowing inhabitants to choose their country of residence.
Energy Cooperation
- Energy cooperation deepened, with Bangladesh importing nearly 2,000 megawatts of electricity from India.
- India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline (2023): This pipeline, connecting Siliguri in West Bengal and Parbatipur in Bangladesh, was established to transport High-Speed Diesel, reducing fuel costs and ensuring a steady supply.
- Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant: India’s collaboration in training Bangladeshi personnel for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, enhancing Bangladesh’s energy capacity.
- Maitree Super Thermal Power Project: It is being developed by Bangladesh India Friendship Power Company (BIFPCL), a 50:50 joint venture between India’s state-run National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB).
Defence Cooperation
- India and Bangladesh conducted joint military exercises like Exercise Sampriti (Army) and Exercise Bongosagar (Navy), strengthening defense cooperation.
Cyber Security
- In June 2022, both countries decided to expand their strategic partnership to enhance Artificial Intelligence and cyber security.
Tourism Sector
- Bangladeshis made up a significant portion of tourists in India, outnumbering those from Western Europe in 2017.
- The introduction of multiple-entry tourist visas for Bangladeshi nationals facilitates easier travel.
- The launch of direct flights between Dhaka and several Indian cities, boosting tourism.
Medical Cooperation
- Bangladesh accounted for over 35% of India’s international medical patients, contributing more than 50% of India’s revenue from medical tourism.
- The establishment of specialized medical visa categories has streamlined the process for Bangladeshi patients seeking treatment in India.
- The collaboration between Indian hospitals and Bangladeshi healthcare providers for telemedicine services improved access to quality medical care.(
Significance of Bangladesh for India
Geo-strategic Importance
- As a key ally to the United States in its Indo-Pacific strategy to counter the Chinese influence in the region, India has joined several initiatives like the Quad, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, etc.
- Since Bangladesh is positioned at the top of the Bay of Bengal – one of the key parts of the Indian Ocean, it carries significant strategic value for ensuring the objectives and interests of India and its ally.
- Bangladesh provides India with access to the Bay of Bengal and a crucial route for trade and connectivity with Southeast Asia.
- To foster relations with Bangladesh, India had prioritised Bangladesh and supplied 10.3 crore vaccine doses to the country, making it the largest recipient of its Vaccine Maitri initiative.
- As the India-Bangladesh partnership expands, some of its latest areas of cooperation resonate with the priority areas of India’s G20 agenda.
- For example, one of the priority areas for G20, under India’s Presidency, is ‘Green Development, Climate Finance and LiFE’. India and Bangladesh have agreed to cooperate on climate change with particular attention to the Sunderban area which is facing challenges due to climate-induced sea level rise.
Geo-political Stability
- A stable and friendly Bangladesh is vital for India’s security, with cooperation on counter-terrorism and border security being essential for regional peace.
- Joint Counter-Terrorism Operations: Enhanced intelligence-sharing and joint operations between Indian and Bangladeshi security forces to combat cross-border terrorism.
- Border Haat Initiatives: The establishment of border haats (markets) has helped reduce illegal cross-border trade and foster better bilateral relations at the grassroots level.
Economic Significance
- Bangladesh is a key economy for India’s exports and bilateral trade, crucial for India’s goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy.
- Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) Discussions (2023): Ongoing negotiations aim to deepen economic ties, reduce trade barriers, and increase bilateral trade.
- Direct Investment: Indian companies, such as Adani Group, investing in Bangladesh’s energy sector, like the 1600 MW Godda power plant project, which will supply power to Bangladesh.
Cultural and Civilisational Links
- Bangladesh has a significant Hindu Bengali population and numerous cultural and religious sites connected to India.
- Cultural Exchanges: Regular cultural exchange programs and festivals celebrating shared heritage, such as the Rabindra Jayanti celebrations in both countries.
- Restoration of Historical Sites: Joint efforts to restore and preserve historical and cultural sites, like the renovation of the Ramna Kali Mandir in Dhaka.
International Cooperation
- Active cooperation between India and Bangladesh is essential for the success of regional forums like BIMSTEC, SAARC, and UNFCCC COPs.
- BIMSTEC Summit (2022): Both countries played pivotal roles in advancing regional integration and cooperation initiatives during the summit.
- Climate Change Initiatives: Collaboration in addressing climate change impacts, such as joint projects on mangrove restoration in the Sundarbans, a UNESCO World Heritage site shared by both nations.
- G20: Within G20, a priority for India is to promote reformed multilateralism which cultivates accountable, inclusive, just, equitable and representative multipolar international systems, fit for addressing contemporary challenges.
- In many of the multilateral platforms in India’s neighbourhood (an area India seeks to influence), Bangladesh is also a member, for e.g., SAARC, BIMSTEC, and IORA. The country’s support is, therefore, necessary, if India’s G20 aspiration is to find a reflection in regional multilateral platforms.
Gateway for India’s Northeast
- Geographically located between West Bengal and the landlocked states in India’s Northeast, Bangladesh is ideally positioned to provide the latter easier access to the rest of the country, as well as to the sea to improve its trade and connectivity.
- Prime Minister Hasina has on multiple occasions invited India to use the Chattogram and Mongla ports, which would benefit the Northeastern states of Assam and Tripura.
- Maitri Setu (bridge) was constructed over the Feni River in 2021, connecting Sarboom in Tripura, India to Ramgarh in Bangladesh.
- The newly inaugurated Padma Setu is also expected to improve connectivity between the two countries.
Challenges Post Sheikh Hasina’s Exit
Resurfacing Security Challenges
- The exit of Sheikh Hasina might lead to the resurgence of anti-India groups, posing security challenges amidst ongoing tensions with Pakistan and the PLA in eastern Ladakh.
Threat to Connectivity with the Northeast
- Disruptions in Indo-Bangladesh relations could restrict India’s access to the Northeast, increasing the region’s vulnerability.
Jeopardized Bilateral Trade and FTA
- Growing bilateral trade ties and potential free trade agreements might be jeopardized, impacting economic relations.
Deterioration of People-to-People Ties
- The political change could lead to backlash from Bangladeshi people and new power centers in Dhaka, straining bilateral relations.
Geopolitical Challenges
- Pakistan and China might exploit the political change to challenge India’s presence in Bangladesh and paint India as pro-Hasina.
Read also: Explained India-Bangladesh Relations | UPSC
Other Challenges in India-Bangladesh Relations
Sharing of Transboundary River Waters
- Disputes like the Teesta river water sharing remain unresolved, with only two transboundary river water sharing treaties signed so far.
- Ganga Water Treaty (1996): This treaty was signed to address the sharing of the waters of the Ganges River during the dry season. The treaty established a formula for water sharing at Farakka Barrage, which is critical for both countries, especially during the lean season from January to May.
- Kushiyara River Water Sharing Agreement (2022): This recent agreement focuses on the sharing of water from the Kushiyara River, which flows through the northeastern region of India into Bangladesh. The agreement aims to enhance cooperation and ensure an equitable distribution of the river’s resources, addressing water scarcity issues in the border areas.
Deportation of Rohingyas
- Conflicting interests in the deportation of Rohingyas from India and Bangladesh to Myanmar pose mutual challenges.
Cross-Border Terrorism and Infiltration
- Cross-border terrorism, infiltration, armed dacoity, fake money transfer, cattle smuggling, and prostitution raise internal security concerns.
Drug Smuggling and Trafficking
- Bangladesh remains a key transit point for drug trafficking, posing significant challenges for India’s internal security.
Growing Chinese Influence
- China’s substantial investments in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could undermine India’s regional standing.
- BRI-Related Loans: China has provided substantial loans to Bangladesh for various infrastructure and development projects under the BRI framework. These loans, often on favorable terms, have increased Bangladesh’s financial dependence on China.
- Padma Bridge (2022): One of the most significant infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, the Padma Bridge, was constructed with substantial funding from China. This bridge connects the southwestern region to the northern and eastern regions, significantly boosting Bangladesh’s connectivity and economic potential.
- Payra Deep Sea Port: China is heavily involved in the development of the Payra Deep Sea Port, which aims to enhance Bangladesh’s maritime infrastructure and trade capacity. The project is expected to increase Bangladesh’s strategic importance in the region and reduce its dependence on other ports.
- Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Anwara: China has invested in the development of a dedicated economic and industrial zone in Anwara, Chattogram. This zone aims to attract Chinese manufacturing firms and boost industrial production in Bangladesh.
- Military Cooperation: China has emerged as a key supplier of military hardware to Bangladesh, including submarines, frigates, and fighter jets, strengthening defense ties between the two countries.
Attacks on Minorities
- Ethnic attacks on Bangla-speaking Hindus in Bangladesh and attacks on Bangladeshis in India strain cultural and people-to-people relations.
India’s Approach to the Bangladesh Crisis
Support for Popular Expression
- India should support the expression of popular will in Bangladesh, as it did in Nepal in 2006, advocating for multi-party democracy.
Readiness to Expand Bilateral Ties
- India should express readiness to expand bilateral economic engagement with a successor government while avoiding branding the political change as anti-India or anti-Hindu.
Caution and Discretion
- India should react cautiously and discreetly, keeping the door open for close and mutually beneficial ties with Bangladesh, similar to its approach with Maldives under Mohamed Muizzu.
Establishment of Joint Task Forces and Smart Border Management
- Joint task forces comprising law enforcement agencies from both countries should be established to combat cross-border drug smuggling, human trafficking, and illegal immigration.
Establishment of a Digital Connectivity Corridor
- A digital connectivity corridor between India and Bangladesh should be established, focusing on high-speed internet connectivity, digital services, and e-commerce to foster trade and technological exchange.
Early Conclusion of India-Bangladesh Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
- With Bangladesh set to lose its Least Developed Country (LDC) status after 2026, India should finalize an FTA to prevent misuse by China through the RCEP agreement.