Introduction
- After nearly 15 years of intense civil war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted in a rapid two-week offensive.
- On December 8, rebel forces captured Damascus, forcing Assad to flee to an undisclosed location.
- This significant development has sparked celebrations in the capital, but it raises a host of complex questions regarding Syria’s future, regional stability, and the involvement of foreign powers.
- Countries across the globe, including India, are closely monitoring the situation, understanding the multifaceted dynamics that have unfolded.
Key Players in the Syrian Conflict
Bashar al-Assad:
- Bashar al-Assad became the president of Syria in 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled the country for nearly three decades. Initially seen as a reluctant leader, Bashar’s rise to prominence was rapid. He consolidated power and became a key regional figure, even being named “the most popular Arab leader” in a 2009 CNN poll. However, his regime’s increasingly brutal approach to dissent, especially during the Arab Spring protests, triggered a devastating civil war that resulted in the ousting of his government.
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Foreign Actors Supporting Bashar al-Assad:
- Assad’s regime has been heavily supported by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Russia provided critical military support, including airstrikes and advanced weaponry, which were pivotal in keeping Assad’s forces afloat during the conflict. Iran has also played a significant role, providing financial and military aid, while Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militant group, actively fought alongside Assad’s forces, further bolstering his military capabilities.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS):
- The group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, emerged as the primary force behind Assad’s ousting. Originally an al-Qaeda affiliate, HTS transitioned into a more localized Islamist group focusing on Syrian nationalism. HTS dismantled both ISIS and al-Qaeda’s Syrian branches, establishing itself as the dominant force in the rebellion against Assad. The group’s rapid rise reflects the shift in Syria’s civil war, where local factions increasingly sidelined foreign jihadist ideologies.
Foreign Actors Opposing Bashar al-Assad:
- The U.S. and Turkey, along with several other Western powers, supported anti-Assad factions throughout the conflict. The U.S. provided military aid, airstrikes, and financial support to opposition forces. Turkey, through the Syrian National Army, also backed rebel factions, often motivated by its concerns over Kurdish militias operating in northern Syria. Israel, too, has targeted Assad’s forces, largely due to Syria’s longstanding support for Palestinian groups and its ties with Iran.
Why Bashar al-Assad Was Ousted
Economic Mismanagement and Social Discontent:
- One of the key reasons behind Assad’s ousting was his economic policies, which prioritized modernization but failed to address deep-seated social inequalities. His reforms largely benefited the elite, leaving Syria’s lower classes struggling with poverty, unemployment, and lack of opportunities. This economic disenfranchisement fueled anger and disillusionment, which grew into widespread social unrest.
Brutal Suppression of Democratic Protests:
- In 2011, the Arab Spring protests reached Syria, calling for democratic reforms and an end to authoritarian rule. Assad’s response was violent, using military force to crush peaceful protests. The brutal crackdown sparked a civil war, and the opposition began to grow in strength, gaining local and international support.
Rise of Religious Extremism:
- Syria, historically a secular society, saw the rise of extremist groups such as ISIS. As these groups expanded their influence, the conflict became more complicated. It was no longer just about overthrowing Assad, but also about controlling the ideological future of Syria, with extremist ideologies gaining ground.
Marginalization of the Sunni Majority:
- Assad’s regime, which is Alawite-dominated, was accused of monopolizing power and marginalizing Syria’s Sunni majority. The Sunni community, which makes up about 60% of the population, felt excluded from political and economic power, leading to greater dissatisfaction with Assad’s leadership. Rising unemployment, inflation, and poverty exacerbated these grievances, making Assad’s position even more vulnerable.
Shifting Balance of Power:
- Over time, the balance of power shifted in favor of opposition forces, particularly the Islamist rebel group HTS. The weakening of Assad’s allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—due to their involvement in other regional conflicts further enabled HTS to make significant advances. With the regime’s support structure weakening, HTS was able to capture Damascus and oust Assad.
Impact of the Syrian Crisis on India
- The Syrian conflict has profound implications for India, influencing its diplomatic relations, economic interests, and regional security.
Historical Ties Between India and Syria:
- India and Syria have maintained a long-standing relationship, grounded in historical, cultural, and civilizational ties. India has consistently supported Syria’s claims on the Golan Heights and has received Syria’s backing on issues like Kashmir. With Assad’s ousting, these ties could be strained, particularly if extremist factions gain control and threaten India’s interests in the region.
Economic Interests at Risk:
- India has substantial investments in Syria’s infrastructure and energy sectors. These include a USD 240 million line of credit for the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant and oil exploration agreements involving ONGC. The fall of Assad and the rise of extremist groups could jeopardize these investments, leaving India vulnerable to financial losses and disruptions in its energy supply chain.
Rise of Extremism:
- The Syrian crisis has exacerbated the global threat of extremism. The rise of groups like ISIS has not only destabilized Syria but also led to an increase in radicalization worldwide, including in India. There have been reports of Indian nationals joining ISIS, and the resurgence of such groups could lead to heightened internal and external security challenges for India.
Concerns for the Indian Diaspora:
- With the ongoing violence and instability, the Indian diaspora in Syria faces increased risks. Indian nationals are exposed to the growing danger posed by extremist factions and the general breakdown of law and order. India must ensure the safety and well-being of its citizens in Syria by providing humanitarian assistance and facilitating their evacuation if necessary.
India’s Strategic Response to the Syrian Crisis
- Given the complexity of the Syrian situation, India must adopt a balanced, pragmatic approach that safeguards its interests in the Middle East.
Maintain Political Neutrality:
- India should avoid taking sides in Syria’s internal conflict. Its long-standing policy of non-intervention should be maintained, with a focus on diplomatic engagement that supports peacebuilding efforts. India’s neutral stance will allow it to play a constructive role in promoting dialogue without becoming entangled in the conflict.
Engage Regional Stakeholders:
- India must engage with key regional powers such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the Arab League. By working together with these actors, India can play a role in facilitating a political settlement, helping to stabilize Syria and prevent further regional instability. Collaboration with these stakeholders is essential for ensuring that any political solution is inclusive and respects Syria’s territorial integrity.
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Extend Humanitarian Aid:
- India should partner with international organizations to provide critical humanitarian assistance to the people of Syria. This includes delivering food, medical supplies, and shelter to displaced populations both within Syria and in refugee camps in neighboring countries. India’s role in this regard will further enhance its reputation as a responsible global actor in promoting human welfare.
Safeguard Economic and Strategic Interests:
- To protect its economic investments in Syria, India should engage with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to mitigate any economic fallout from regional instability. Strengthening ties with these countries will ensure that India’s energy and infrastructure interests remain secure despite the shifting political landscape in Syria.
Strengthen Counter-Terrorism Cooperation:
- With the rise of extremist factions in Syria, India must enhance its counter-terrorism strategies. Strengthening intelligence-sharing and security cooperation with global partners will be crucial in preventing the spread of extremist ideologies and terrorist activities into South Asia. This collaborative effort will help curb the threat posed by groups like ISIS and HTS.
Monitor the Role of HTS:
- As one of the most powerful factions in post-Assad Syria, HTS will play a key role in shaping the country’s future political landscape. India should closely monitor HTS’s policies, particularly regarding governance, minority rights, and regional security. This will help India understand the long-term implications of HTS’s actions on the broader Middle East and South Asia.
