Introduction
- The conflict between Israel and Lebanon has escalated dramatically in recent weeks, with Israel intensifying its military operations against Hezbollah.
- A series of airstrikes have been launched across Lebanon, with over 1,300 strikes targeting Hezbollah strongholds and military installations.
- The escalation into a full-scale war has resulted in widespread violence, claiming the lives of approximately 600 Lebanese people and creating a severe humanitarian crisis in the country.
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Background of the Israel-Lebanon Wars
Historical Conflicts:
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- The Israel-Lebanon conflict has been marked by a series of wars, notably the 1982 Lebanon War and the 2006 Lebanon War. These confrontations are rooted in deep-seated tensions and unresolved territorial issues.
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Hezbollah’s Emergence:
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- Established in the early 1980s with support from Iran, Hezbollah is a Shiite militant organization and political entity in Lebanon. It arose in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and has since evolved into a significant player in Lebanese politics, frequently engaging in military confrontations with Israeli forces, thereby posing a substantial security threat to Israel.
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Israeli Military Engagements:
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- Israel has executed several military incursions into Lebanon. The 1982 invasion aimed to dismantle the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), while more recent operations have focused on countering Hezbollah. The Israeli military’s presence in southern Lebanon underscores its broader security apprehensions regarding militant activities along its borders.
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Dispute over Shebaa Farms:
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- The Shebaa Farms region, situated at the intersection of Lebanon, Israel, and Syria, remains a contentious area between Hezbollah and Israel. The Israeli occupation of this territory is a significant source of conflict that perpetuates hostilities.
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Proxy Dynamics between Iran and Israel:
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- Iran’s financial and military support for Hezbollah plays a pivotal role in the Israel-Lebanon conflict. Israel views Hezbollah as a manifestation of Iran’s regional influence, contributing to a broader proxy war dynamic that complicates the situation further.
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Value Additions
- Influence of PLO Activities: The actions of the Palestinian Liberation Organization in Lebanon during the late 20th century prompted Israeli interventions, transforming Lebanon into a theater for regional conflicts.
- Hezbollah’s Political Role: In addition to its military operations, Hezbollah’s integration into Lebanon’s political framework grants it considerable influence over state matters, complicating the nation’s stance on neutrality.
- Strategic Significance of Southern Lebanon: Southern Lebanon’s geographical and strategic importance continues to play a crucial role in the ongoing conflict dynamics.
Global Consequences of the Israel-Lebanon Conflict
Disruption of Geopolitical Dynamics in the Middle East:
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- The recent hostilities, particularly the Israel-Lebanon conflict, have interrupted the ongoing geopolitical shifts, including the reconciliation efforts between Israel and Arab nations as well as the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, thereby obstructing the processes of peace and normalization.
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The Middle East as a Battlefield:
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- The ongoing conflicts have the potential to turn the region into a full-scale warfare zone. For example, the 2006 Lebanon War led to widespread destruction in Lebanon, and similar escalations could involve international actors, including US naval forces stationed in the region and European support for Israel. The conflict also echoes the proxy dynamics seen during the Syrian Civil War, where multiple international actors, including Russia, the US, and Iran, were actively involved.
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Threats to Global Connectivity Initiatives:
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- The conflict poses a threat to large infrastructure projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which aims to link South Asia with Europe via the Gulf. Strategic supply routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world’s oil passes, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, are at risk of being affected, potentially disrupting global trade.
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Disruptions in Supply Chains and Rising Inflation:
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- The conflict directly impacts oil production in the region, which in turn affects global supply chains. A recent example is the Russia-Ukraine war, which led to significant disruptions in global energy supplies, especially natural gas, causing energy prices to spike. Similarly, disruptions in oil exports from key Middle Eastern producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq due to the Israel-Lebanon conflict could lead to higher fuel prices, escalating transportation costs and, subsequently, the overall cost of goods, further fueling inflation.
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Escalation of Radicalization:
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- The conflict may serve as a unifying cause for extremist organizations such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, providing them with an opportunity to recruit new members under the guise of a larger jihadist movement.
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Impact on India
- Challenges to De-hyphenation Policy: The escalation places India in a diplomatic dilemma, complicating its efforts to maintain balanced relations with both the Arab nations and Israel.
- Inflation Spike: The conflict’s repercussions on oil and gas production will further intensify inflation in India, given the nation’s substantial reliance on imported energy sources.
- Currency Depreciation: The surge in oil prices, along with its effects on India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD), is likely to lead to a depreciation of the rupee, while inflows of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) may also be adversely impacted.
- Impact on India-Israel Trade: Israel, a key defense and strategic ally of India, may experience a decline in trade relations during an extended conflict, which would affect India’s overall economic interactions.
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- Reduction in Remittances and Diaspora Safety: Should the conflict extend throughout the Middle East, remittances from the region (approximately $40 billion annually) are anticipated to decrease, and ensuring the safe evacuation of Indian expatriates will pose a significant challenge.
- Impact on Stock Market: During the recent escalation of the Middle East crisis, the Indian stock market experienced a sharp crash, with the Sensex falling by 1,700 points, amid fears of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East which has been amplified by the attack on Israel by Iran. Such market reactions reflect investor concerns over rising oil prices, potential disruptions to global supply chains, and broader economic uncertainty, affecting investor confidence and causing sharp declines across various sectors.
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Way Forward
- UNSC Peace Mediation: The UNSC must take an active role in brokering peace and preventing the Middle East from becoming another war zone.
- Indirect Negotiations: Mediators, such as the UN, US, or European countries, could facilitate indirect talks to reduce tensions.
- Strengthening UNIFIL: Enhancing the capabilities of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon could help maintain stability along the Israel-Lebanon border.
- De-militarization of Shebaa Farms: Placing the Shebaa Farms area under international control may help reduce future conflicts.
- Engaging Regional Actors: Involving regional powers like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar can help mediate the conflict and foster peace.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/02/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-war-history.html
