World Population Day and Its Significance
Observance and Origin:
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- World Population Day is observed on July 11 every year. It was instituted in 1989 by the United Nations after the renowned demographer Dr. K.C. Zachariah proposed it. This initiative was taken after the global population surpassed five billion, drawing attention to critical issues like poverty, health, and gender inequality, especially in developing countries.
Current Population Statistics:
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- Global: Estimated at 8.1 billion.
- India: Now the most populous nation with approximately 1.44 billion people, slightly surpassing China.
Understanding Demographic Dividend
Definition:
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- According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential resulting from changes in a population’s age structure, leading to a higher proportion of working-age individuals.
Impacts:
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- Labour Supply: An increased labour supply can boost production and economic growth. For instance, East Asian countries like South Korea experienced rapid economic growth due to their young and expanding workforce during the 1960s-1990s.
- Savings and Investment: With fewer dependents, national savings rates increase, fostering capital formation. For example, Japan saw high savings rates during its demographic transition, leading to substantial economic growth.
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India’s Demographic Status
Population Growth:
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- Slowdown: India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from 3.4 in the early 1990s to 2 in 2020-2021, indicating slower population growth.
Projections:
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- India’s population is expected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2064 before settling at 1.53 billion by 2100.
Young Population:
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- Age Group: 62.5% of India’s population is between 15-59 years, presenting a significant demographic dividend opportunity.
Key Factors in India’s Demographic Transition
Fertility:
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- Significant reduction in TFR from 3.4 (1992) to 2 (2021), below the replacement level of 2.1. For example, states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have seen significant drops in fertility rates due to effective family planning and education programs.
Mortality:
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- Steady decline in maternal mortality rate (MMR) from 384.4 (2000) to 102.7 (2020) and infant mortality rate from 66.7 deaths per 1,000 live births (2000) to 25.5 (2021). Programs like the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) have played a crucial role in improving healthcare services.
- Migration: Increased rural-to-urban migration has bolstered the urban labor force. Cities like Bangalore and Hyderabad have become IT hubs due to this migration, contributing significantly to the economy.
Opportunities from Demographic Dividend
Increased Labour Supply:
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- More working-age individuals can enhance economic activities. For instance, India’s IT sector has benefited greatly from its young and tech-savvy workforce.
Economic Growth:
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- Higher economic growth through increased labor force participation and lower dependency ratios. The example of China leveraging its demographic dividend during its economic boom from the 1980s onwards is illustrative.
Capital Formation:
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- Higher savings rates lead to more capital for investment. India’s rising middle class is increasingly investing in financial markets and real estate.
Infrastructure Development:
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- Resources can be reallocated to invest in physical and human infrastructure. The construction of metro systems in cities like Delhi and Mumbai showcases this potential.
Female Workforce Participation:
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- Lower fertility rates enable more women to join the workforce, boosting human capital. The success of women in sectors like banking and technology in India highlights this trend.
Innovation and Entrepreneurship:
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- A young population fosters innovation and new business ventures. India’s startup ecosystem, with companies like Flipkart and Byju’s, is a prime example.
Sustainability and Climate Action:
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- An educated youth can drive sustainable development initiatives. India’s push for solar energy and electric vehicles demonstrates this potential.
Global Influence:
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- India can become a global manufacturing hub and a significant exporter of skilled labor. The “Make in India” initiative aims to transform India into a manufacturing powerhouse.
Challenges to Demographic Dividend
Human Capital:
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- Low employability among graduates; only 20-30% of engineers find jobs suited to their skills (ASSOCHAM). Initiatives like the Skill India program aim to bridge this gap.
Human Development:
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- India ranks low on the UNDP Human Development Index (134 out of 189), with low life expectancy and average schooling years. Improving education and healthcare is crucial.
Hunger and Malnutrition:
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- Ranked 111 out of 125 in the Global Hunger Index (2023); significant issues with child malnutrition and anemia in women. Programs like the Mid-Day Meal Scheme aim to tackle this issue.
Informal Economy:
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- A large informal sector with underpaid workers lacking social security benefits. Formalizing this sector through policies and regulations is essential.
Jobless Growth:
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- Low labor force participation rate (53% for ages 15-59), with concerns about future job growth due to industrial and technological changes. Promoting diverse industries and vocational training is key.
Female Workforce Participation:
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- Female labor force participation rate is around 37%, posing challenges to leveraging the demographic dividend. Initiatives supporting women’s employment, like MUDRA loans, are vital.
Way Forward
Building Human Capital:
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- Invest in healthcare, quality education, and skills development to enhance economic growth and social inclusion. For example, the implementation of the New Education Policy (NEP) aims to overhaul the education system.
Skill Development:
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- Empower the labor force with modern economy skills; target of skilling/upskilling 500 million people by 2022 through NSDC.
Education Investment:
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- Improve primary, secondary, and higher education to leverage the youth demographic. Programs like Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan aim to improve educational outcomes.
Health and Nutrition:
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- Strengthen healthcare infrastructure to ensure higher productivity; focus on schemes like Ayushman Bharat and ICDS.
Job Creation:
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- Create 10 million jobs annually to absorb the growing workforce; promote entrepreneurship and business interests. Initiatives like the Startup India program support new ventures.
