Introduction
- India and Ukraine recently signed four agreements to provide for cooperation in agriculture, medicine, culture & humanitarian assistance.
- This came amid Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
- It was the first-ever visit to Ukraine by an Indian prime minister after Ukraine became independent in 1991, and his trip came amid Kyiv’s fresh military offensive in Russia’s western Kursk region.
- India has always emphasized that lasting peace can only be achieved through dialogue and diplomacy.
Historical Background of India-Ukraine Relations
- Diplomatic Ties Established Early: India recognized Ukraine soon after the Soviet Union’s disintegration, establishing diplomatic relations in January 1992. India opened its embassy in Kyiv by May 1992, and Ukraine inaugurated its first mission in Asia in New Delhi by February 1993.
- Initial Engagement with Constraints: India and Ukraine cooperated across various domains, including defense and diaspora relations. However, India’s strong ties with Russia limited the depth of its engagement with Ukraine during the early years.
- Post-War Decline in Relations: The Russia-Ukraine conflict led to a significant decline in bilateral trade, dropping from $3.39 billion in 2021-22 to approximately $0.71 billion in 2023-24. This downturn reflects the broader impact of the war on India-Ukraine relations.
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Areas of Cooperation Between India and Ukraine
Geopolitical Cooperation:
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- Historical Support: During the Soviet era, Ukraine played a role in supporting India, notably during the 1971 Indo-Pak war, under leaders like Leonid Brezhnev and Nikita Khrushchev. This historical connection laid the foundation for future diplomatic relations.
- High-Level Dialogues: Regular communication between Indian and Ukrainian leaders has been maintained, even during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. For example, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima in May 2023, discussing the global impact of the conflict and mutual interests.
- Collaborative Platforms: India and Ukraine have engaged through Joint Working Groups and Foreign Office Consultations. In 2023, the India-Ukraine Foreign Office Consultations reaffirmed the commitment to strengthen bilateral ties amidst ongoing challenges.
Defense Cooperation:
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- Arms and Technology: Ukraine has been a key supplier of military technology to India, including the R-27 missiles for the SU-30MKI fighters. Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine continues to fulfill its defense commitments to India.
- Emerging Defense Exports: India has begun exporting defense equipment to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia. In 2023, India provided Ukraine with non-lethal military aid, including protective gear and communication equipment.
Economic Cooperation:
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- Trade Dynamics: India was Ukraine’s largest export destination in Asia-Pacific in 2020, and bilateral trade peaked at $3.386 billion in 2021-22. Although trade volumes have declined due to the war, efforts to revive economic ties are ongoing, with discussions in 2023 about exploring new trade routes and diversifying trade items.
- Key Exports: Ukraine continues to export agricultural products, such as wheat and corn, to India. In return, India exports pharmaceuticals and machinery. In 2023, India facilitated the export of critical medicines to Ukraine, highlighting the resilience of this economic partnership.
- Corporate Presence: Indian companies maintain a significant presence in Ukraine. For instance, the Indian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers’ Association continues to operate in Ukraine, focusing on the supply of essential medicines and healthcare products.
Humanitarian Assistance:
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- Aid during Conflict: India provided 99.3 tons of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, including medical supplies and equipment. In 2023, India expanded its humanitarian efforts by sending additional medical supplies and a mobile field hospital to assist in Ukraine’s ongoing healthcare challenges. Indian pharmaceutical companies have donated over USD 8 million in aid.
Diaspora and Cultural Cooperation:
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- Community Engagement: The Indian community in Ukraine remains active in business and education, despite the ongoing conflict. In 2023, the “India Club” organized online cultural events and webinars to keep the community engaged and connected, showcasing resilience and solidarity during challenging times.
- Cultural Exchange: Numerous Ukrainian groups continue to promote Indian culture. In 2023, the International Day of Yoga was celebrated virtually in Ukraine, with participation from both Indian and Ukrainian citizens. The cultural ties were further highlighted by the ongoing popularity of Indian films, with events organized by Ukrainian cultural associations to screen Indian movies and celebrate Indian art.
Institutional Cooperation:
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- Educational Initiatives: Programs like ITEC, ICCR scholarships, and Kendriya Hindi Sansthan Scholarships continue to support capacity building and cultural exchange. In 2023, these programs were adapted to online formats, ensuring that educational exchanges and cultural interactions between the nations remained uninterrupted.
Challenges in India-Ukraine Relations
Decline in Trade:
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- The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has significantly reduced trade between India and Ukraine. For example, bilateral trade, which peaked at $3.39 billion in 2021-22, plummeted to approximately $0.71 billion in 2023-24.
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Impact on Imports:
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- The reduction in imports from Ukraine, especially sunflower oil, has led to a direct impact on inflation in India. Sunflower oil, a staple in Indian households, saw a significant price rise due to the conflict-induced supply chain disruptions.
- This led to India seeking alternative sources, which resulted in higher costs and contributed to food inflation in 2023, stressing household budgets and increasing the cost of living.
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Russia-India Ties:
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- India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, marked by abstentions in UN votes and a refusal to publicly criticize Russia, has strained its geopolitical cooperation with Ukraine.
- For instance, India’s decision to continue purchasing discounted Russian oil amidst the conflict has been viewed negatively by Ukraine and its Western allies, making it difficult for India to deepen its diplomatic and economic ties with Ukraine.
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Past Diplomatic Tensions:
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- Historical diplomatic tensions have also contributed to the challenges in India-Ukraine relations.
- Ukraine’s criticism of India’s nuclear tests in 1998, when Ukraine condemned the tests and called for global non-proliferation, created a rift between the two nations.
- Additionally, Ukraine’s stance on Kashmir has occasionally aligned with broader international positions that differ from India’s viewpoint, further complicating relations.
- For example, Ukraine has occasionally echoed concerns raised by Western countries regarding human rights in Kashmir, which has been a sensitive issue for India and has hindered deeper engagement between the two nations.
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Emerging Opportunities in India-Ukraine Relations
Defense Cooperation Expansion:
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- Post-war, India can leverage its existing stockpile of Soviet-era arms to enhance defense ties with Ukraine.
- Given the ongoing conflict, Ukraine has a pressing need for military hardware compatible with Soviet systems, which India possesses in significant quantities.
- For example, India’s vast inventory of Soviet-origin weapons, such as T-72 tanks and MiG aircraft, could be upgraded or exchanged for Ukraine’s innovative military technologies.
- Ukraine’s expertise in producing advanced military hardware, such as the Neptune anti-ship missile and the Bayraktar TB2 drone, could be pivotal for India’s defense modernization efforts.
- A notable recent development is Ukraine’s interest in collaborating with India on developing next-generation systems, such as the Grim-2 ballistic missile system and advanced drone technology similar to the Bayraktar Akinci.
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Strategic Naval Cooperation:
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- Ukraine’s expertise in waterborne technology, particularly in designing small, agile naval vessels, has been highlighted by its successful use of such technology against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
- For instance, Ukraine has developed the Gyurza-M class artillery boats, which are small but heavily armed and agile, suitable for coastal defense and riverine operations.
- Additionally, Ukraine’s R-360 Neptune anti-ship missile has demonstrated effectiveness against larger naval vessels, including its reported role in the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva.
- Ukraine’s unmanned surface vessels (USVs), such as the Kamikaze naval drones, have also been used innovatively in asymmetric naval warfare.
- India could benefit from this expertise in the Indian Ocean, where it faces increasing naval challenges from China.
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Industrial Collaboration:
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- The relocation of Ukrainian manufacturing bases to India presents a significant opportunity for both nations. For example, Zorya-Mashproekt, a leading Ukrainian manufacturer of gas turbines, has faced operational challenges due to the conflict.
- There have been discussions about relocating some of its production facilities to India, which could benefit both countries.
- This move would provide Ukraine with a secure production environment while boosting India’s manufacturing sector.
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Reconstruction Opportunities:
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- The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will require massive labor and expertise, areas where India could contribute significantly.
- India boasts one of the largest and youngest workforces in the world. India is a young nation with 554 million people falling in the 15-64 years age group.
- India’s skilled labor force could be mobilized to aid in rebuilding critical infrastructure in Ukraine, from roads and bridges to housing and industrial facilities.
- Indian construction companies like Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Tata Projects are exploring partnerships with Ukrainian firms for joint ventures in reconstruction projects.
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Digital Governance Collaboration:
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- Enhanced digital cooperation between India and Ukraine could be transformative for both nations.
- India’s experience with large-scale digital projects, such as the Aadhaar biometric identification system and electronic voting machines, could be invaluable to Ukraine as it seeks to modernize its governance amidst the challenges posed by the conflict.
- Conversely, Ukraine’s DIIA app, which allows citizens to access government services and documents via smartphones, could revolutionize digital governance in India.
- In 2023, discussions between Indian and Ukrainian officials explored the possibility of adapting the DIIA platform for use in India, potentially leading to more efficient and accessible government services.
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