Introduction
- In the recent elections in Sri Lanka, Anura Kumara Dissanayake has been elected as the new president.
- Dissanayake, the leader of the National People’s Power (NPP), is known for his leftist and populist stance.
- The NPP is a coalition formed around the left-wing Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party that traditionally espoused anti-capitalist nationalism with a strong anti-Indian sentiment.
- Historically, the JVP has promoted Sinhala nationalism and been critical of Indian influence in Sri Lanka. However, following the recent economic crisis and widespread public protests that triggered significant political changes, Dissanayake seems to recognize the need for a more pragmatic approach in maintaining relations with India.
- His election presents both opportunities and challenges for India in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
NPP Group and its Stance Towards India
Nature of the NPP:
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- The National People’s Power (NPP) is a coalition in Sri Lanka that includes various interest groups like artists, academics, businesspeople, and women’s organizations. It is primarily centered around the left-wing Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party that historically held anti-capitalist and nationalist views. In the past, the JVP has been characterized by an anti-Indian stance, primarily due to its nationalist positioning and opposition to India’s involvement in Sri Lanka’s internal matters, such as during the Sri Lankan Civil War.
Shift in the Relationship:
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- The NPP, under the leadership of Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), has refuted its previous anti-India bias. Recent developments indicate a shift in the NPP’s approach towards India. AKD’s visit to India and meetings with key Indian officials, including the External Affairs Minister and the National Security Advisor, have signaled a willingness to foster positive relations. Furthermore, India’s assistance during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2022 has been acknowledged by the NPP, showcasing India as a positive influence in the country’s recovery.
India’s Recent Approach Towards the NPP
- Diplomatic Engagement: India has been proactive in engaging with the NPP and its leadership. After the election, India’s High Commissioner was among the first to visit AKD, further reflecting India’s interest in maintaining a positive relationship with emerging political forces in Sri Lanka.
- Support During Economic Crisis: India played a significant role during Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic crisis by providing $4 billion in financial assistance. This includes credit lines, humanitarian aid, and support for debt restructuring, which has earned goodwill across Sri Lanka’s political spectrum, including the NPP.
- Strategic Cooperation: India’s strategic interests in Sri Lanka, particularly in terms of maritime security and economic projects like the Trincomalee oil tank farm and the Sampur power plant, remain a priority. The NPP’s leadership has not shown signs of undermining these projects, which further strengthens India-Sri Lanka cooperation.
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History of India-Sri Lanka Relations
Ancient and Cultural Ties:
- The historical and cultural relationship between India and Sri Lanka dates back over 2,500 years, with Buddhism serving as the cornerstone of these ties. The spread of Buddhism to Sri Lanka was a significant cultural and religious exchange, initiated by Emperor Ashoka, who sent his son Mahinda and daughter Sanghamitta to propagate the teachings of Buddhism.
- Furthermore, the close linguistic ties, especially with the Tamil-speaking population in the Northern and Eastern parts of Sri Lanka, have further cemented this relationship.
Civil War and Indian Intervention:
- The relationship between India and Sri Lanka became strained in the late 20th century due to the Sri Lankan Civil War, which erupted in the 1980s, driven primarily by the ethnic conflict between the Sinhala-majority government and the Tamil minority, particularly the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). India, with a sizable Tamil population, felt a strong sense of responsibility to protect the interests of Sri Lankan Tamils.
Indo-Sri Lankan Accord:
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- In 1987, India intervened diplomatically and militarily through the Indo-Sri Lankan Accord, which aimed to provide regional autonomy to Tamil-majority areas in Sri Lanka.
- The accord led to the deployment of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to help maintain peace and oversee the implementation of the accord
- The IPKF became embroiled in direct conflict with the LTTE, and growing casualties, domestic pressure, and political opposition led to India’s eventual withdrawal in 1990.
- This marked a turning point in the bilateral relationship, with both countries re-evaluating their engagement strategies moving forward.
Post-War Reconstruction:
- After the Sri Lankan Civil War ended in 2009, with the defeat of the LTTE, India played a pivotal role in the country’s reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts. India extended development aid and launched several projects aimed at restoring livelihoods, such as agricultural and fisheries rehabilitation programs.
Importance of Sri Lanka for India
- Strategic Location: Sri Lanka’s position in the Indian Ocean is critical for maritime security, as it lies on the East-West trade route. Its ports, like Hambantota, are pivotal for controlling sea lanes, making Sri Lanka a key player in India’s regional strategy.
- Countering China’s Influence: India is particularly concerned about China’s growing presence in Sri Lanka, exemplified by infrastructure projects like the Hambantota Port and the development of Colombo. Ensuring that China’s influence does not jeopardize India’s strategic interests remains a priority for New Delhi.
- Geopolitical Interests: Sri Lanka’s proximity and shared historical ties with India mean that stability and peace in the island nation are critical for India’s own security. This is particularly true in light of India’s increasing investments and its role in aiding Sri Lanka’s economic recovery.
Positive Developments in India-Sri Lanka Relations
Commercial Relations:
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- India and Sri Lanka maintain a robust and expanding economic relationship, with notable progress in trade and investment over recent years.
- India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISFTA): The ISFTA, signed in 2000, has significantly bolstered trade between the two nations by removing tariffs on a range of goods. This agreement has encouraged greater economic engagement, helping both economies benefit from increased market access.
- Bilateral Trade: India has emerged as Sri Lanka’s largest trading partner. In 2022, bilateral trade reached USD 5.5 billion, reflecting the strong economic ties and growing commerce between the two countries.
- FDI from India: India remains one of the leading sources of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Sri Lanka. With total FDI exceeding USD 2.2 billion, sectors such as energy, infrastructure, telecommunications, and hospitality have particularly benefited from Indian investments, helping drive Sri Lanka’s economic growth.
Development Cooperation:
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- India has been a vital development partner for Sri Lanka, with its support playing a key role in the country’s reconstruction and development.
- Grant Commitments: India has committed over USD 3.5 billion in development aid to Sri Lanka. These grants have been directed towards diverse sectors including education, healthcare, housing, industrial development, and livelihood programs, contributing to Sri Lanka’s socio-economic progress.
- Demand-Driven Partnership: India’s approach to development cooperation with Sri Lanka has been largely demand-driven and people-centric, focusing on the specific needs of local communities. Notable projects include the construction of homes for displaced communities in the Northern and Eastern provinces and the development of essential infrastructure like schools and hospitals.
- India’s National Thermal Power Corporation is also going to develop a 100-megawatt power plant in Sampur, a strategic point at the Trincomalee’s natural harbour.
- India signed a deal with Sri Lanka to develop Trincomalee oil tank farm.
- Sri Lanka cancelled a Chinese company’s licence to build a micro electricity grid close to India.
Cooperation in Maritime Security:
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- Given the strategic location of Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, maritime security has become a critical area of cooperation between India and Sri Lanka.
- Joint Naval Exercises (SLINEX): The SLINEX naval exercises are a key component of maritime cooperation between the two nations. These exercises have enhanced interoperability and fostered deeper collaboration in maritime security, focusing on countering common threats like piracy, terrorism, and drug trafficking.
- Integration in Regional Security Architecture: Sri Lanka is an essential part of India’s regional maritime security framework. Sri Lankan coastal surveillance radars are integrated with India’s International Fusion Center – Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) based in Gurugram. This integration has strengthened real-time sharing of maritime security information, boosting the ability to monitor and secure crucial Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs).
Concerns in India-Sri Lanka Relations
Rising Chinese Influence:
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- China’s growing presence in Sri Lanka, particularly through large infrastructure projects like the Colombo airport development, has raised alarms in India. The Chinese government has often secured strategic contracts, including the Hambantota Port lease, which India perceives as undermining its own economic interests. India is concerned about the lack of a level playing field, with the Sri Lankan government sometimes appearing to favor Chinese companies over Indian ones in major projects.
Security Concerns:
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- The regular docking of Chinese naval vessels, including submarines and so-called research ships, in Sri Lankan ports, poses significant security threats for India. The Hambantota Port, leased to China, could potentially be used for military purposes, jeopardizing India’s security in the region. This movement in Sri Lankan waters is a matter of grave concern given the strategic location of Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean.
Safeguarding Strategic Interests:
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- India is particularly concerned about protecting its strategic investments in Sri Lanka, such as the Adani-backed renewable energy project. Environmental groups, especially those aligned with the NPP (National People’s Power), have called for the scrapping of these projects, creating uncertainty around India’s ventures in Sri Lanka. After providing significant financial aid during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, India seeks to ensure that its strategic and economic interests are safeguarded.
Exclusion of Minority Groups:
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- India has expressed concerns over the exclusion of Tamil and Muslim minorities from Sri Lanka’s governance structures. India shares deep cultural and ethnic ties with the Tamil population in Sri Lanka, especially in the Northern and Eastern provinces. Any form of exclusion or marginalization of these communities poses a significant issue for India, both on humanitarian and geopolitical grounds.
Fishing Disputes:
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- The ongoing maritime boundary disputes, especially concerning Katchatheevu Island in the Palk Strait, have led to frequent tensions between Indian fishermen and the Sri Lankan Navy. Despite the 1974 Indo-Lanka Maritime Boundary Agreement, Indian fishermen often cross into Sri Lankan waters, resulting in confrontations, arrests, and sometimes violence. These incidents have created friction between the two nations and need urgent resolution.
Unresolved Tamil Issue:
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- India remains concerned about the slow progress in finding a political solution to the Tamil issue in Sri Lanka. The Tamil community has long demanded the implementation of the 13th Amendment, which promises devolution of power to the provinces. However, Sri Lanka has been slow to fulfill these commitments, leading to ongoing discontent among the Tamil population. India, with its historical involvement in the conflict, continues to advocate for a political resolution that ensures the rights and autonomy of the Tamil community in Sri Lanka.
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Way Forward
- Address Security Concerns: India should engage diplomatically to ensure its security concerns are addressed, especially regarding Chinese naval movements and infrastructure projects close to Indian borders.
- Strategic Patience: India could adopt a wait-and-watch approach, as seen in its dealings with Maldives, refraining from hasty decisions while ensuring that its long-term strategic interests in Sri Lanka are protected.
- Collaboration on Shared Frameworks: Both countries should continue working within the framework of India’s Neighbourhood First policy and the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative, focusing on economic cooperation and regional security.
