Introduction
- The recent agreement between India and China on patrolling and disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) represents a significant step in addressing the tensions that arose following the 2020 border standoff.
- While this progress signals a return to diplomacy, unresolved “legacy disputes” in areas like Demchok and Depsang continue to cast a shadow over the relationship.
Key Features of the India-China LAC Agreement
- Restoring Patrolling Protocols: One of the agreement’s highlights is the reinstatement of patrolling routes that existed before the 2020 tensions. Both nations have committed to resuming patrolling along these routes, marking a step toward restoring normalcy along the LAC.
- Focus on Disengagement: The agreement prioritizes the completion of the disengagement process, which has been a critical area of negotiation over the past four years. Troops will be withdrawn from friction points, reducing the chances of confrontation.
- Reduction in Military Presence: Both India and China have agreed to slightly withdraw their forces from sensitive zones to de-escalate tensions. Regular monitoring mechanisms and review meetings have been incorporated into the agreement to ensure compliance and transparency.
- Building Confidence: To prevent misunderstandings, the agreement includes measures to strengthen communication between military commanders. This will enable swift resolution of potential disputes and reinforce trust-building efforts.
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Implications of the Agreement for India-China Relations
- De-escalation of Border Tensions: By addressing key flashpoints along the LAC, the agreement reduces the risk of confrontations like the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. It creates a more stable border environment, which is vital for regional peace.
- Revival of Diplomatic Engagements: Successful implementation of the agreement could serve as a foundation for revitalizing diplomatic relations. Platforms like BRICS, SCO, and G20 could witness renewed collaboration between the two nations, fostering broader regional cooperation.
- Economic and Trade Boost: Stability along the border is likely to pave the way for stronger economic ties. The resumption of direct flights and increased Chinese investment in India, for instance, could become a reality, benefiting both economies.
- Regional Stability and Geopolitical Influence: A thaw in India-China relations could positively influence other territorial disputes in Asia. Improved ties may alter perceptions of China’s border policies among neighboring countries, encouraging peaceful conflict resolution.
- Addressing Legacy Disputes: While the agreement primarily focuses on immediate concerns, it sets the stage for tackling unresolved issues like Demchok and Depsang in the future, offering hope for a long-term resolution.
Challenges in Resolving the Border Dispute
- Historical Disagreements: The border dispute is deeply rooted in the aftermath of the 1962 Sino-Indian war, which left unresolved territorial claims and hardened mistrust. For example, the Depsang Plains, strategically critical for India as they connect to the DBO Road near the Karakoram Pass, remain a contentious zone due to China’s persistent presence. Similarly, the Demchok area is another hotspot where China’s refusal to accept India’s claim under the Johnson Line has prolonged disagreements.
- Unilateral Actions by China: China has frequently altered the status quo along the LAC, intensifying tensions. For instance, in 2020, Chinese troops moved into Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso areas, crossing into territories that India considers its own. These incursions directly violated agreements such as the 1993 Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement, undermining confidence in future accords.
- Nationalistic and Strategic Pressures: Nationalistic fervor and strategic imperatives often prevent meaningful compromise. For example, the Indian government faced domestic pressure to retaliate strongly after the Galwan clash in 2020, where 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives. On the other hand, China sees these border areas as critical to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) strategy and remains unwilling to concede ground that could impact its geopolitical ambitions.
- Militarization of the LAC: Both nations have engaged in extensive infrastructure development along the LAC, escalating the arms race. India has built advanced roads like the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) Road and bridges to improve accessibility to forward areas, while China has constructed all-weather roads, airbases, and surveillance installations near the border. For example, China’s new G219 highway in the Aksai Chin region enhances its ability to mobilize troops swiftly, further complicating disengagement efforts.
- Erosion of Trust: The Doklam standoff in 2017 significantly eroded trust between India and China. This 73-day standoff occurred when China attempted to extend a road in the Doklam plateau, an area claimed by Bhutan and of strategic importance to India as it overlooks the Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as India’s “Chicken’s Neck.” The standoff exposed the limits of existing border agreements, such as the 2005 Protocol on Modalities for the Implementation of Confidence-Building Measures, which aimed to prevent escalations.
- Imbalance in Buffer Zones: The creation of buffer zones as part of disengagement agreements often results in India ceding access to areas it had patrolled for decades. For example, after disengagement at Pangong Tso in 2021, India withdrew from the Finger 4 area to create a no-patrol buffer, while China retained control over areas it had advanced into near Finger 8. Such arrangements are perceived as asymmetrical, fueling domestic dissatisfaction in India and complicating future negotiations.
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Way Forward
- Sustained High-Level Dialogue: Both nations must prioritize continuous dialogue at political, diplomatic, and military levels. Open channels of communication are essential for reducing misunderstandings and fostering long-term stability.
- Rebuilding Trust: Proactive measures to avoid unilateral actions and honor commitments under the agreement can help rebuild trust. A transparent approach to disengagement and monitoring will be critical.
- Resolving Legacy Disputes: Unresolved issues like Demchok and Depsang must be addressed in subsequent negotiations. A comprehensive approach that considers these disputes will be key to achieving lasting peace.
- Equitable Disengagement: Future disengagement efforts should aim for balance, ensuring neither side feels disadvantaged by territorial adjustments. This would help maintain equilibrium and foster goodwill.
- Utilizing Multilateral Platforms: Platforms such as BRICS and SCO should be leveraged to discuss broader regional challenges, creating opportunities for collaborative conflict resolution and fostering mutual understanding.
- Strengthening Monitoring Mechanisms: The inclusion of periodic review meetings and enhanced monitoring measures will ensure adherence to the agreement, reducing the likelihood of future confrontations.
