Falling Fertility Rates in India – Key Insights for UPSC

Introduction

• India’s demographic landscape is shifting significantly, with declining fertility rates taking center stage in discussions about the country’s future. 
• A recent Lancet study projects that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) could fall to 1.29 by 2050, well below the replacement level of 2.1. While this marks progress in population control, it also raises pressing concerns about ageing populations, regional disparities, and socio-economic challenges.
• Southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where TFRs have already dropped below 1.9, exemplify the issue. 
• These regions are grappling with the consequences of an ageing population, which include potential declines in workforce numbers and representation in national decision-making. 
• Leaders like Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu have proposed incentives to encourage larger families to counteract these trends. 
• Meanwhile, calls from figures such as RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat for families to have at least three children highlight growing anxieties over falling fertility. 
• However, promoting higher birth rates in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, where populations are already surging, could exacerbate socio-economic issues.

Read also: Child Marriage in India: Issues & Solutions | UPSC Prep

What is Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

• TFR Defined: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children a woman (aged 15–49) is expected to have during her lifetime.
• Replacement Level Fertility Rate: A TFR of 2.1 is considered the benchmark for a stable population, ensuring one generation replaces itself without growing or shrinking.
• TFR Below Replacement Level: When TFR drops below 2.1, the population cannot sustain itself over the long term, eventually leading to a decline.

The Declining Fertility Rate in India

• • India has made significant progress in reducing fertility rates over the decades, but this trend comes with complexities.
• National Family Health Survey (NFHS 2019–21):
  • National Average: India’s TFR has reached 2.0, down from over 6 in the 1950s.
  • Urban vs. Rural Divide: Urban areas report a TFR of 1.6, while rural areas have a higher rate of 2.1.
  • Regional Variations: States such as Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Manipur still have TFRs above the replacement level.
• Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Study:
• • India’s TFR has declined from 6.18 in 1950 to 4.60 in 1980 and further to 1.91 by 2021.
  • Globally, TFR has dropped from around 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, showcasing a widespread demographic shift.

Projections on India’s Population Dynamics

• Data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare highlights the following trends:
  • Population Growth Concentrated in Northern States: Between 2011 and 2036, India’s population is expected to grow by 311 million. Northern states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh will contribute 170 million to this growth.
  • Minimal Growth in Southern States: Southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu will contribute only 29 million, or 9%, to the population increase.
  • Rising Elderly Population: India’s elderly population (60+) is set to double from 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore by 2036, making up nearly 15% of the population.
  • Regional Disparities in Ageing: Kerala’s elderly will comprise 25% of its population by 2036, while Uttar Pradesh’s elderly will account for only 12%.

Why Is India’s Fertility Rate Falling?

• Family Planning and Welfare Programs: Family welfare programs introduced after independence have been highly effective in reducing falling fertility Rates in India. These initiatives include awareness campaigns about contraception and maternal health incentives, which have encouraged smaller family norms.
  •   Example:The National Family Welfare Program, launched in 1951, was the first of its kind globally and aimed at reducing fertility rates in India through sterilization and contraceptive use.
  • According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), the percentage of women using modern contraceptives increased from 47.8% (NFHS-4) to 56.5%.
• Improved Maternal and Child Health: Significant advancements in healthcare have reduced infant and maternal mortality rates. This has increased child survival rates, making families more confident in having fewer children.
  • Infant mortality in India decreased from 47 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2010 to 28 in 2020 (UNICEF). Maternal mortality declined from 130 per 100,000 live births in 2014-16 to 97 in 2018-20 (Office of the Registrar General, India).
• Behavioral Shifts: Campaigns such as “Hum Do, Humaare Do” have influenced societal mindsets, promoting the idea of smaller families. The widespread availability and use of contraceptives have further reinforced this shift.
  • Media campaigns such as the National Population Stabilization Fund’s “Nayi Pehel Kit” promote family planning awareness and contraceptive use in rural areas.
• Reversal of Intergenerational Wealth Flow: In the past, children were seen as economic assets who would support parents in old age. With modernization and rising costs of education and upbringing, parents now invest more in fewer children, discouraging large families.
  • The Global Wealth Report 2021 highlights that India’s urban middle-class families spend 30-40% of their income on raising children, including education and healthcare.
• Women’s Empowerment: Rising literacy rates, career aspirations, financial independence, and increased workforce participation among women have enabled them to make informed reproductive choices, often prioritizing personal and professional goals over having additional children.
  • Initiatives like the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao campaign have focused on improving female literacy and reducing gender disparities, leading to more informed reproductive choices.
  • Female literacy increased from 65.46% in 2011 to 70.3% in 2021 (National Statistical Office). Workforce participation among women in urban areas rose from 22.3% in 2018-19 to 24.3% in 2020-21 (Periodic Labour Force Survey).
• Preference for Adoption: An increasing number of families are opting for adoption as an alternative to child-rearing, contributing to the decline in fertility rates. As per CARA, the number of in-country adoptions rose from 3,276 in 2019-20 to 3,559 in 2021-22, indicating a growing preference for adoption over additional childbirth. 

Significance of Declining Fertility Rates for India

• Economic Growth: Declining population growth increases per capita resource availability. This demographic dividend, combined with a young and skilled workforce, can significantly boost labor productivity and economic growth.
  •  Countries like South Korea leveraged their demographic dividend in the 1970s to transition from a low-income to a high-income nation, driven by a young and educated workforce.
  • According to the Economic Survey 2019-20, India’s working-age population (15-64 years) is projected to peak at 59% in 2041, providing a window for economic acceleration.
• Improved Employment Conditions: A smaller workforce population can lead to better wages and working conditions. For example, industrial hubs like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat may see reduced wage discrimination and better job security for migrant workers. A study by International Labour Organization (ILO) highlights that reduced labor supply in high-income states like Tamil Nadu has led to a 12% increase in wages for skilled and semi-skilled workers over the past decade. 
• Higher Workforce Participation Among Women: Lower fertility rates mean reduced childcare responsibilities, allowing more women to participate in the workforce. For instance, Southern states have reported a rise in female employment in programs like MNREGA. According to NFHS-5 (2019-21), Southern states like Kerala reported a female workforce participation rate of over 30%, compared to the national average of 24.3% (Periodic Labour Force Survey 2020-21). 
• Better Social Services: With fewer dependents, governments can invest more in education, healthcare, and skills development, improving the overall quality of life for citizens. According to NITI Aayog’s Health Index (2021), states with lower fertility rates like Kerala and Tamil Nadu lead in healthcare quality, with Kerala achieving a composite score of 82.2 out of 100. 
• Environmental Benefits: Slower population growth reduces the strain on natural resources, mitigating issues like deforestation, pollution, and overuse of agricultural land. According to India State of Forest Report 2021, forest cover in low-fertility states like Himachal Pradesh increased by 9% between 2010 and 2020. Additionally, carbon emissions per capita in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are 25% lower than in states with higher population densities like Uttar Pradesh.

Challenges of Fertility Rates Falling Below Replacement Levels

• Ageing Population: A shrinking TFR leads to a growing elderly population, increasing dependency ratios and straining pension and healthcare systems. China’s demographic challenges due to falling fertility rates serve as a warning for India. India’s elderly population is projected to double from 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore by 2036, increasing from 8.6% to 14.9% of the total population (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). 
• Higher Non-Developmental Expenditure: Governments may need to allocate more funds to pensions, subsidies, and healthcare for an ageing population, diverting resources from developmental initiatives. In India, public spending on social security pensions increased from ₹110 billion in 2016-17 to ₹160 billion in 2020-21 (Union Budget Reports). With an ageing population, this expenditure is expected to rise further.
• Labor Shortages: A shrinking working-age population can pose risks to economic stability. Japan’s economic slowdown due to labor shortages highlights the potential consequences of this demographic shift. India’s workforce population is projected to peak by 2030 and decline thereafter. According to UN World Population Prospects 2022, labor shortages could affect sectors like manufacturing and services, critical drivers of India’s economy.
• Decline in Innovation: Younger populations are the drivers of innovation, entrepreneurship, and technological advancements. A reduced youth demographic limits this potential, affecting long-term economic growth. According to the Global Innovation Index 2021, countries with ageing populations like Japan rank lower on innovation indicators compared to nations with younger demographics. India, despite its demographic dividend, could face similar challenges in the future.
• Social and Gender Imbalances: Cultural preferences for male children could worsen skewed sex ratios and deepen gender disparities, exacerbating societal inequities. According to NFHS-5 (2019-21), India’s sex ratio has improved to 1,020 females per 1,000 males. However, states like Haryana (926 females per 1,000 males) still reflect significant disparities, driven by son-preference and declining fertility rates.
• Political Representation Concerns: Southern states with lower fertility rates may lose parliamentary representation during constituency delimitations, while populous northern states may gain more seats, potentially creating regional tensions. Uttar Pradesh’s population growth rate of 20.1% (2011-2021) far exceeds Kerala’s 8.6%, highlighting the potential for shifts in political power.

See more: Right to Disconnect: A Digital Detox for a Healthier Life | UPSC

 Way Forward

• Move Beyond Pro-Natalist Policies: Financial incentives to encourage higher birth rates have shown limited success globally. Instead, India can follow Scandinavian models that provide robust childcare support, promote gender equality, and enable work-life balance to encourage family expansion.
• Facilitate Internal Migration: Encouraging migration from high-fertility northern states to low-fertility southern states can address labor shortages and balance regional disparities. This approach mirrors the success of pro-immigration policies in countries like the U.S.
• Economic and Pension Reforms: Policymakers must focus on creating jobs, stimulating economic growth, and reforming pensions to mitigate the economic impact of an ageing population.
• Promote Ethical Migration Policies: Developing frameworks for ethical inter-state migration can address labor shortages in low-fertility regions while maintaining regional balance.
• Encourage Shared Responsibilities: Promoting shared household and childcare responsibilities can enable women to balance work and parenting more effectively, reducing the trade-offs associated with having children.
• Formalize the Caregiving Sector: Recognizing caregiving as a formal profession, providing proper training, and offering fair wages and improved workplace conditions can address the growing demand for elderly care and create employment opportunities.
• Adopt Home-Based Care Policies: Southern states should implement comprehensive policies for training caregivers, streamlining roles, and establishing grievance redressal mechanisms to ensure high-quality elderly care.
• Implement Innovative Solutions Like Time Banking: Programs such as Switzerland’s Time Bank, where young people earn credits by caring for the elderly and redeem them later for their own care, could provide a sustainable model for addressing ageing populations in India.