Arctic Policy 2022 : Geopolitical and Economic Implications of Arctic Melting for India

Arctic Policy 2022 which highlights India’s vision for science research, climate protection, economic growth, connectivity, governance, national capacity building, monsoon studies, and international cooperation to secure long term interests in the Arctic region.

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Table of Contents

Arctic Policy 2022  Introduction 

  • Geographically, the Arctic is the region along the southernmost latitude in the Northern Hemisphere.
  •  Politically, it is governed by the eight northernmost states that constitute the Arctic region and are member states of the Arctic Council : United States (US), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Greenland/Denmark, Finland, and Canada.
  • The ongoing melting of the Arctic region is not only a significant environmental crisis but also an emerging geopolitical and economic opportunity. 
  • With climate change accelerating the process, new trade routes are emerging, particularly the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which offers a more direct link between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. 
  • These developments come with both opportunities and challenges for countries like India, which stands to gain geopolitical leverage but also faces risks, especially amid global trade tensions and the shifting dynamics of global supply chains.

Arctic as a Strategic Geopolitical Pillar for India

  • Why the Arctic Matters to India: Despite lacking territorial claims, India’s Arctic engagement stems from its impact on the Indian monsoon, which is vital for nearly 60 percent of the country’s rain-fed agriculture. Changes in the Arctic influence global climate patterns and rising sea levels, threatening India’s coastal zones, 1,300 islands, and over 40 million people.
  • Link Between the Arctic and the Himalayas: India draws a strategic and scientific parallel between the Arctic and the Himalayas, often referred to as the “Third Pole.” Though differing in geography and geopolitics, both regions hold strategic significance and face shared challenges from external pressures and rising tensions among upper riparian states.
    • India’s Arctic Policy focuses on climate change and recognizes the link between the Arctic, Indian monsoons, and the Himalayan ecosystem.
    •  Arctic research provides valuable insights into Himalayan glacier behavior, especially regarding black carbon impacts and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
    •  The Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) is modeled after the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP).
    • Both the Arctic and the Himalayas face risks from the release of ancient pathogens due to melting ice, raising concerns over future pandemics.
    • The Arctic offers a model for open scientific collaboration and transparent data sharing, which can be applied to environmental and strategic issues in the Himalayas.
  • Arctic Amplification: The Arctic is warming at a rate approximately four times faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. As sea ice melts, the reflective white ice is replaced by darker ocean waters that absorb more heat, accelerating the warming process. This shift disrupts global weather patterns and is linked to extreme events such as:
    • Heatwaves in Europe and Asia
    • Harsh winters in North America
    • Unseasonal rainfall or droughts worldwide
    • These disruptions in weather patterns affect agriculture, infrastructure, and ecosystems globally, leading to significant social and economic impacts.
  • Rich Resources: The Arctic is estimated to hold significant natural resources, including:
  • 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil
  • 30% of untapped natural gas
  • Rich deposits of rare earth elements and copper, phosphorus, niobium, platinum group elements
  • Valuable fishing grounds
  • As India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer, aims to raise natural gas usage from 6 to 15 percent by 2030, the region presents a strategic opportunity to enhance its energy security and reduce import dependence.
  • As the ice melts, there is a growing interest in exploring these untapped resources, which could significantly impact global markets and geopolitical power dynamics.
  • Better Connectivity: Melting Arctic ice is reshaping shipping routes, offering a shorter path between economies like the US, Europe, and northeast Asia, resulting in reduced shipping costs, faster transit times, and increased security for goods. 
    • According to NASA, the Arctic sea ice is melting at a rate of 12.2% per decade, which is expected to eventually open up the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This route, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans across the North Pole, is considered the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia.
    • For India, the NSR represents both an economic and geopolitical opportunity. By accessing the route, India can enhance its maritime trade efficiency, reducing shipping costs and transit times. This route offers a 40 percent shorter journey between Eastern Asia and Europe compared to the Suez Canal. Additionally, it could provide strategic access to international waters, offering a competitive edge in global trade.
    • India also stands to benefit from linking the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) with the Unified Deep-Water System (UDWS) of Russia and its further extension to the Arctic. Such connection could lower shipping costs, stimulate hinterland development, and support indigenous communities, offering advantages beyond traditional East–West connectivity. 
  • Countering China’s Expanding Presence in the Arctic:   China views the Arctic as a strategic frontier, linking it to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through the “Polar Silk Road.” It has invested US$10 billion in Russian Arctic energy projects, including the Yamal LNG pipeline and Arctic LNG 2, holding a 20 percent stake. China’s growing presence along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) challenges India’s economic and geopolitical interests. India’s engagement with Russia in the Arctic can counterbalance China’s dominance, safeguard energy supply lines, and prevent Russia from becoming overly dependent on China. Strengthening India’s Arctic presence is vital amid concerns over China-Russia relations and potential border conflicts.

Key Initiatives by India in the Arctic Region

  • Svalbard Treaty (1920): India’s engagement with the Arctic began early, with its participation in the Svalbard Treaty in 1920. This treaty recognizes the rights of signatory nations to engage in peaceful activities in the Arctic, marking India’s initial steps into Arctic affairs.
    • Department of Ocean Development (DOD): India set up the Department of Ocean Development (DOD) in 1981 to promote marine research and develop technologies to harness ocean resources. In 2006, it was upgraded to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), gaining greater authority and funding. MoES now oversees ocean exploration and resource management, including polar research in the Arctic and Antarctic.
    • First Scientific Expedition: In 2007, India sent its first scientific expedition to the Arctic, with a focus on studying the biology, oceanography, atmosphere, and glaciers in the region. 
  • Himadri Research Base (2008): India’s presence in the Arctic is symbolized by the Himadri Research Base, located in the Arctic region. India is one of the few developing countries, alongside China, to establish a permanent research station in the Arctic. This base plays a key role in scientific exploration and data collection, particularly in climate studies.
    • India’s Arctic Engagement: India gained observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013, enabling active involvement in Arctic policy and projects. It deployed its first multi-sensor moored observatory, IndArc, in Kongsfjorden in 2014, followed by the establishment of an atmospheric lab at Gruvebadet in 2016.
  • India’s Arctic Policy (2022): India’s Arctic Policy, announced in 2022, sets a comprehensive framework for the nation’s activities in the region. The policy is structured around six pillars:
      • Science & Research: Focus on environmental and climate research.
      • Climate & Environment Protection: Addressing the impact of climate change on the region.
      • Economic & Human Development: Supporting sustainable growth in Arctic communities.
      • Transportation & Connectivity: Exploring new trade routes such as the Northern Sea Route.
      • Governance & International Cooperation: Strengthening cooperation in Arctic governance.
      • National Capacity Building: Enhancing India’s domestic capabilities to engage with the Arctic.
  • Monsoon Research: Collaboration between the Institute of Governance & Sustainable Development and the National Council of Applied Economic Research has led to research focusing on how changes in the Arctic, especially the loss of sea ice, might influence India’s monsoon patterns and agricultural productivity. These insights are crucial for understanding the broader implications of Arctic climate change on India’s climate systems.
  • Arctic Circle India Forum: India’s commitment to Arctic affairs is further demonstrated by the upcoming Arctic Circle India Forum, an international conference scheduled for May 2025. This forum will provide a platform for dialogue on Arctic cooperation, highlighting India’s growing interest in the region.
  • Research Initiatives: The National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) in Goa leads India’s Arctic research efforts, including the establishment of a research base in Svalbard, Norway. NCPOR plays a pivotal role in gathering valuable data on Arctic ecosystems and climate change.
  • Scientific Expeditions: India has conducted numerous scientific expeditions to the Arctic, focusing on climate change studies and environmental monitoring. These expeditions have contributed valuable data on the state of the Arctic ecosystem, helping inform global climate change policy.
  • India-Russia Collaboration: India and Russia have deepened their collaboration in the Arctic, with a working group established on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Additionally, the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor presents an opportunity to enhance connectivity to NSR ports, strengthening India’s trade relations with Russia.

Way Forward

  • Boosting Shipbuilding Capabilities: India needs to focus on expanding its shipbuilding capacity to handle the unique challenges of the Arctic’s harsh environment. Investments in ice-breaking fleets and other specialized vessels will enable India to capitalize on the NSR and other Arctic opportunities. This requires enhancing the range, categories, and capacity of ships to navigate through the icy waters effectively.
  • Leveraging Multilateral Engagements: India should continue to engage in multilateral forums like the Arctic Circle India Forum, emphasizing India-specific interests. This platform will serve as a valuable venue for initiating stakeholder consultations, building partnerships, and advancing India’s Arctic agenda.
  • Appointing a ‘Polar Ambassador’: As several nations, including the USA and Greenland, have appointed Arctic Ambassadors to represent their interests in the Arctic region, India can follow suit by appointing a Polar Ambassador. This diplomatic role would help streamline India’s Arctic-related efforts and ensure a coordinated approach to Arctic governance.
  • Balancing Relations with Russia and the USA:
    • India faces the challenge of maintaining a balanced relationship with both Russia and the USA in the Arctic. While Russia offers extensive Arctic expertise and access to key trade routes, India’s engagement with Russia could inadvertently support China’s growing influence in the region through its Polar Silk Road. On the other hand, aligning with the USA may limit India’s access to the vast resources controlled by Russia.
    • To navigate this, India can partner with like-minded nations such as Japan and South Korea, which share similar concerns about China’s Arctic ambitions. Together, they can push for a more inclusive and equitable Arctic Council.
  • Need for a Strategic and Geopolitical Pillar in India’s Arctic Policy: India’s 2022 Arctic Policy  overlooks critical aspects such as increasing militarisation, great power competition, and the Arctic’s growing geopolitical relevance. To align with evolving dynamics and safeguard its long-term interests, India should consider adding a seventh pillar focused on strategic and geopolitical dimensions.

 

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