Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal  Introduction

• The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, brokered by Qatar, the United States, and Egypt, represents a significant breakthrough in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict that began with Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. 
• Announced on May 6, 2024, the agreement aims to halt hostilities, facilitate the exchange of prisoners, and deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. 
• However, while the ceasefire holds promise, its sustainability is uncertain, and numerous critical issues remain unresolved. 

What is HAMAS? 

• HAMAS–the acronym for Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya (Islamic Resistance Movement)—is the largest and most capable militant group in the Palestinian territories and one of the territories’ two major political parties. 
• HAMAS is committed to armed resistance against Israel and to the creation of a Palestinian state, and the group has engaged in several rounds of violent conflict with Israel. The most recent began on 7 October 2023, when HAMAS launched a massive surprise attack against Israel, killing nearly 1,200 people. 

Key Aspects of the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement

• • The ceasefire agreement is structured in three stages, unfolding over 126 days, each focusing on humanitarian relief, prisoner exchanges, and long-term reconstruction. 
  • The agreement will be overseen by Qatar, Egypt, the United States, and the United Nations to ensure compliance and accountability.

• First Stage (42 Days):

• • Cessation of Hostilities:
    • Israel and Hamas agree to a halt in military operations, with Israeli forces pulling back from densely populated areas, repositioning near Gaza’s border.
    • Restrictions on Israeli air operations will be imposed for 10-12 hours daily, aimed at minimizing civilian casualties.
  • Humanitarian Relief and Reconstruction:
    • Humanitarian aid will enter Gaza, including 600 trucks daily, with 50 trucks carrying fuel.
    • Essential services such as electricity, healthcare, and water will be restored. Efforts to clear rubble and provide shelter for displaced people will also begin.
  • Prisoner Exchange:
    • Hamas will release 33 Israeli detainees (alive or deceased), including women, children, and the elderly, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. The release will be phased, with provisions for minors and women detained after October 2023.
    • Israel will also improve conditions for Palestinian prisoners, lifting penalties and improving their living standards.
  • Preparations for Future Stages:
    • By day 16, discussions will start on further prisoner exchanges, setting the stage for the next phases of the agreement.

• Second Stage (42 Days): 

• • Sustainable Calm:
    • A formal ceasefire will be declared between the two parties.
    • All remaining Israeli detainees (civilians and soldiers) will be exchanged for additional Palestinian prisoners.
    • Israeli forces will complete their withdrawal from Gaza.

• Third Stage (42 Days): 

• Final Exchange and Reconstruction:
  • The bodies of the deceased from both sides will be exchanged.
  • Over the next 3-5 years, Gaza’s homes and infrastructure will undergo comprehensive reconstruction, with international oversight.
  • The complete lifting of the Gaza blockade will facilitate free movement of people and goods.

History of Israel-Palestine Conflict

The Nakba: Leading up to Israel’s birth in 1948, more than 750,000 Palestinians were ethnically cleansed from their homes by Zionist militias. This mass exodus came to be known as the Nakba or catastrophe.

Challenges in Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement

• Fragility of the Agreement: The fragility of ceasefire is illustrated by the history of failed ceasefires between Israel and Hamas.
  •  In the 2014 Gaza conflict, a ceasefire brokered by Egypt collapsed within hours after a series of rocket attacks by Hamas and Israeli airstrikes.
  •  According to the United Nations, at least three ceasefire agreements were broken during that conflict, highlighting how quickly small provocations can escalate into broader violence. 
  • The mutual distrust between the parties exacerbates this issue; for instance, in the aftermath of a 2018 ceasefire, the parties accused each other of violating the terms, leading to resumed hostilities.
• Uncertainty Around Hostages and Prisoners: The exact number of hostages and the condition of those held by Hamas remain unclear. Whether Hamas knows the locations of all hostages is a major concern. Additionally, the list of Palestinian prisoners Hamas seeks to free is still unknown, complicating the exchange process.
• Israel’s Long-Term Objectives: While Israel has succeeded in significantly weakening Hamas’s operational infrastructure—destroying tunnels, weapons caches, and leadership targets—experts, such as those from the International Crisis Group, note that Hamas’s core organization has not been entirely dismantled. 
  • A report from the US-based think tank, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, argues that Hamas has a substantial reserve of fighters and a deep social support base that enables it to replenish its leadership and operational capabilities over time. 
  • This makes the long-term sustainability of the ceasefire uncertain, as Hamas could potentially rebuild its military and political strength once the temporary cessation of hostilities ends. 
  • For example, during the 2018-2019 Gaza border protests, Hamas demonstrated its ability to rally popular support and military forces despite significant losses in previous rounds of conflict.
• Role of International Stakeholders: The international community, particularly the United Nations and regional actors like Qatar and Egypt, must play a crucial role in ensuring that both sides adhere to the terms of the ceasefire and take meaningful steps toward a long-term resolution.
  • Egypt, for example, has long been a key mediator between Israel and Hamas, owing to its geographical proximity and historical ties with both parties. Yet, despite its efforts in mediating ceasefire agreements, Egypt’s influence is often limited by its own internal and regional political considerations. Similarly, Qatar’s role is shaped by its strong support for Hamas, but this affiliation can undermine its ability to act as a neutral mediator.
  • The United Nations, while consistently advocating for a lasting peace, has struggled to enforce its resolutions and ensure compliance from both Israel and Hamas. In instances where the UN has brokered ceasefires, such as the one in 2014, enforcement has been weak, often due to the lack of clear mechanisms for monitoring the agreements. 

The Roots of the Israel-Palestine Dispute

• The Israel-Palestine conflict is deeply rooted in historical, political, and territorial disputes, many of which have been exacerbated by external support and regional dynamics. Here are some key factors that fuel the conflict:

• Normalization of Relations Between Israel and the Arab World: The 2020 Abraham Accords saw Israel normalize relations with countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Saudi Arabia and Israel have also explored economic cooperation. Hamas, however, opposes this normalization, seeking to disrupt Israel’s growing ties with Arab nations.

• Hamas’s Bid for Leadership: The Palestinian Authority (PA), which had signed the Oslo Accords with Israel in 1993, has become increasingly ineffective, corrupt, and politically divided. Hamas is trying to take over the leadership of the Palestinian cause, positioning itself as the true representative of Palestinian interests.

• External Support for Hamas: Hamas receives substantial support from Hezbollah, Iran, and Qatar, including financial resources, intelligence, and military aid. This external backing strengthens Hamas’s ability to challenge Israel and prolong the conflict.
• Disputes Over Jerusalem: Jerusalem remains a key point of contention. Israel controls the entire city and considers it its capital, while Palestinians demand East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state. This unresolved issue has been at the heart of previous uprisings, including the Al-Aqsa Intifada.

• Israeli Settlements in the West Bank: Israel’s construction of settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since the 1967 Six-Day War remains a major obstacle to peace. These settlements are widely considered illegal under international law, although Israel disputes this claim. Palestinians demand the removal of these settlements to create a viable Palestinian state.
• Border Disputes: Palestinians insist on borders based on the 1949 ceasefire lines, which separated Israel from East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza. Israel, however, insists on an extended eastern border reaching the Jordan River, complicating the territorial dispute.
• Lack of Consensus on Palestinian Statehood: Despite decades of negotiations, there is no consensus on the creation of a Palestinian state. Israel insists on the recognition of its status as the “nation-state of the Jewish people,” while Palestinians are divided on how to pursue statehood.
• Political Divisions Among Palestinians: The political divide between Hamas and the PA makes it difficult for Palestinians to present a unified position in negotiations with Israel. This lack of unity weakens their negotiating leverage.
• Failure to Pursue a Peace Process: Both sides have failed to make meaningful progress in pursuing peace. Israel continues to expand settlements and impose security barriers, while Hamas’s violent tactics have only intensified the conflict.

Way Forward

• While the ceasefire is an important step, the path to lasting peace will require more than just a temporary halt to hostilities. Here are some potential steps forward:
• UNSC’s Role in Peace Negotiations: The United Nations Security Council must play a more active role in facilitating peace talks and ensuring that the Middle East does not descend into further violence. The UNSC should broker a peace agreement that addresses the underlying causes of the conflict.
• Implement UNSC Resolution 2334: The UNSC resolution condemning Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories must be enforced. Israel should halt further settlement expansion and dismantle illegal settlements to pave the way for a viable Palestinian state.
• Adopt the Arab Peace Initiative: Saudi Arabia’s 2002 Arab Peace Initiative calls for a Palestinian state based on the pre-1967 borders in exchange for full recognition of Israel by Arab countries. This offer provides a potential framework for lasting peace between Israel and Palestine.
• Reframe the Conflict as an Israel-Arab Conflict: The conflict should be viewed as part of a broader Israel-Arab dispute. Involving Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Syria in peace talks, alongside the United Nations, could create a more comprehensive resolution.
• Follow the ICC Ruling: The International Criminal Court’s ruling allowing investigations into war crimes committed in Palestinian territories should be fully implemented. This will ensure accountability for violations committed during the conflict.
• India’s Role as a Mediator: India, with its strong relationships with both Israel and the Arab world, could act as a neutral mediator in peace talks. By leveraging its diplomatic influence, India can help facilitate a balanced and fair resolution to the conflict.