Introduction
- On December 25, 2024, China approved the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo Dam, marking a significant milestone in its hydropower ambitions. This massive project, located on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (known as the Brahmaputra in India), will be the largest hydropower facility in the world, generating 60,000 MW of electricity—three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam.
- Although Beijing presents the dam as a step toward clean energy, its implications for the region, especially India, are profound, sparking concerns over geopolitics, the environment, and regional stability.
Yarlung Tsangpo River
- The Tsang-Po River, also known as Yarlung River, is a stream which originates upriver from the southern Basin of the Tibetan territory.
- The Yarlung Tsangpo River is regarded as the highest major river in the world.
- The Yarlung Tsangpo represents the body of the goddess Dorje Phagmo, one of the highest incarnations in Tibetan culture.
- The source of the river is the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon.
- The river subsequently moves through the state of Arunachal Pradesh , where the name of the river is Dihang. The expression “Tsangpo” stands for purifier.
- Major Right Bank Tributaries: Subansiri, Kameng, Manas, Sankosh
- Major Left Bank Tributaries: Burhi Dihing, Dhansari, Lohit, Dibang, Kopili
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What is the Yarlung Tsangpo Dam Project?
- The Yarlung Tsangpo River originates in Tibet, where it forms a dramatic U-turn at the “Great Bend” before entering Arunachal Pradesh in India.
- The proposed dam will be built at this crucial bend in Medog County, Tibet, leveraging the river’s steep descent of nearly 2,000 meters to generate hydropower.
- This ambitious project, part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), is expected to generate around 300 billion kWh of electricity annually.
- In line with China’s carbon neutrality target for 2060, the dam is a cornerstone of its renewable energy goals. However, its construction raises serious concerns about its impact on neighboring countries, particularly India, where the Brahmaputra is a critical water source.
Why is China Building the Yarlung Tsangpo Dam?
- Geopolitical Leverage: The strategic location of the dam allows China to exercise control over the river’s flow, giving it leverage over downstream countries like India and Bangladesh, which depend on the Brahmaputra for agriculture, drinking water, and livelihoods. China’s increasing control over vital rivers across Asia, including its past actions on the Mekong and Yellow Rivers, signals how water can be used as a form of regional dominance. The dam could also be used as a tool in Sino-Indian relations, further complicating an already tense geopolitical situation.
- China’s management of the Mekong River through the construction of dams has already strained relationships with downstream countries such as Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Similarly, the Yarlung Tsangpo Dam could escalate tensions in South Asia, especially considering India’s strategic concerns over its northeastern states.
- Energy Security and Sustainability: The Yarlung Tsangpo has an estimated flow rate of about 2,800 cubic meters per second at the Great Bend, one of the world’s steepest river sections. This provides ideal conditions for hydropower generation. The proposed 60,000 MW capacity of the dam is three times larger than the Three Gorges Dam, which currently holds the title of the world’s largest hydropower project with a 22,500 MW capacity.
- As part of its commitment to becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, China is increasingly turning to renewable energy sources, with hydropower playing a pivotal role. According to China’s National Energy Administration, hydropower accounted for about 17% of the country’s total power generation in 2020. The Yarlung Tsangpo Dam will significantly contribute to this target by adding 300 billion kWh of electricity annually, helping to replace coal-powered generation, thereby reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
- Addressing Water Scarcity in Northern China: Northern China, including regions like Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin, faces severe water scarcity due to overuse, industrialization, and climate change. According to the World Bank, northern China has only 20% of the country’s total water resources, even though it is home to 40% of the population. As a result, China faces major challenges in ensuring water security for its northern regions. The control over the Yarlung Tsangpo’s flow could allow China to divert water northward under its South-North Water Diversion Project, helping alleviate water stress in these arid regions.
- Economic Development in Tibet: The dam is expected to generate about 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) annually, providing economic opportunities for the Tibetan Autonomous Region. This will boost Tibet’s infrastructure, create jobs, and promote regional development in an underdeveloped area, which is strategically significant for China.
What Are the Concerns for India?
- Weaponization of Water: China’s control over the Brahmaputra puts it in a position to weaponize water. Historical incidents, such as the withholding of hydrological data during the 2017 Doklam standoff, have shown China’s willingness to use water as a geopolitical tool. Any manipulation of the river’s flow could have severe repercussions for India, particularly in the northeastern states.
- Agricultural Impact: The Brahmaputra plays a vital role in enriching the soil in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam through silt deposition. A large dam could disrupt the flow of silt, reducing soil fertility and adversely impacting crop production downstream. This disruption could be devastating for the millions of farmers dependent on the river.
- Assam is one of India’s largest rice producers, with the state contributing over 5 million metric tons of rice annually. Studies suggest that 70% of Assam’s agricultural land depends on the Brahmaputra’s annual silt deposits. A decrease in this silt flow could lead to a drop in rice and tea production, which are vital to the state’s economy.
- Disruption of Water Flow: While China insists that the project is a “run-of-the-river” scheme, experts warn that it may disrupt the river’s natural flow. This could result in water shortages during the dry season and floods during the monsoon, both of which would endanger millions of lives and livelihoods in Assam and other regions of northeastern India.
- In 2019, Assam experienced one of the worst floods in recent history, affecting over 3 million people and causing economic losses of approximately $1.5 billion. The dam’s impact could exacerbate such flooding or worsen drought conditions during dry months by altering the river’s natural flow.
- Seismic Risks: The Himalayan region, where the dam will be built, is one of the most seismically active in the world. The construction of such a large-scale dam in this earthquake-prone region poses significant risks of infrastructure failure, potentially leading to catastrophic flooding downstream.
- The 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China, measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale, resulted in catastrophic damage and loss of life. Dams built in seismic zones, such as the Zipingpu Dam in Sichuan, faced increased pressure due to seismic activity. A similar situation in the Yarlung Tsangpo Dam could lead to catastrophic flooding downstream in India and Bangladesh, particularly in the already vulnerable northeastern regions.
- Ecological and Biodiversity Impact: The dam threatens the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, which is home to several endangered species. Along with the challenges posed by deforestation, climate change, and soil erosion, the project could cause irreversible damage to the region’s biodiversity. This could disrupt local wildlife and affect the livelihoods of communities that rely on the river and its surrounding ecosystems.
- The Kaziranga National Park in Assam, home to the one-horned rhinoceros, relies on the Brahmaputra for its water supply. According to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), any significant changes in the river’s flow could threaten the park’s biodiversity.
India and China’s Cooperation on Transboundary Rivers
- Memorandum of Understanding (MoU): In 2013, India and China signed an umbrella MoU on transboundary rivers, which established a framework for cooperation. However, the agreements on individual rivers, including the Brahmaputra, have not always been effective.
- Brahmaputra MoU: In 2002, India had entered into an MoU with China for five years upon provision of Hydrological information on Brahmaputra River during flood season by China to India. This MoU is renewed every five years and allows for hydrological data sharing during the monsoon season. However, it lapsed in 2023 and is currently under renegotiation.
- Sutlej MoU: Following the 2004 Parechu Lake incident, the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between India and China was signed on the Sutlej River. It is an agreement to share hydrological information during flood season to help with flood control and disaster mitigation. However, it does not provide for continuous, year-round data sharing.
- In 2004, the Parechu Lake incident in Tibet, caused by Chinese infrastructure projects, led to significant concerns about the safety of communities living downstream in India’s Arunachal Pradesh.
- Expert-Level Mechanism (ELM): The ELM, established in 2006, enables India and China to share data on flood-season hydrology and coordinate emergency management efforts. However, it needs to be expanded to address year-round data sharing and better flood forecasting.
- Despite these agreements, India and China are not signatories to the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. Nevertheless, both countries observe key aspects of the convention, including the equitable and reasonable use of shared water resources.
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India’s Response: Strategic Options
- Strengthening Diplomatic Engagement: India must use diplomatic channels to promote transparency and cooperation with China, pushing for clear assurances on the impact of the project on downstream countries. Publicly questioning China’s claims about the minimal impact can prevent unilateral decisions.
- Accelerating Domestic Hydropower Projects: India is already planning a 10 GW hydropower project in Arunachal Pradesh’s Dibang Valley. By accelerating the development of domestic hydropower projects, India can reduce its dependence on China’s control over the Brahmaputra.
- International Advocacy: India can work with regional bodies and international forums to advocate for stronger transboundary water governance norms. This could put pressure on China to act responsibly in managing shared rivers.
- Enhancing Data Sharing Mechanisms: India must push for more comprehensive hydrological data sharing with China, especially for flood forecasting and disaster management. Expanding the scope and duration of these agreements will improve India’s ability to manage water risks effectively.
- Building Regional Alliances: India should strengthen ties with Bangladesh and other lower riparian countries to present a united front against unilateral upstream actions by China. This coalition can advocate for more equitable management of transboundary rivers.
- Investing in Resilience: India should invest in resilient infrastructure and flood control systems to mitigate the risks posed by China’s hydropower projects. Early warning systems and flood management infrastructure are essential for minimizing the impact of any changes to the Brahmaputra’s flow.
